Prediction Markets

Traditional market research asks a respondent what they (individually) would do. Our proprietary prediction market platform flips the script by asking respondents to predict what the market will do.

A prediction market collects and aggregates the knowledge and judgment of a random, diverse group around a specific event or concept for the purpose of making predictions.

The methodology behind this is based on the “wisdom of crowds” mentality – as made famous by James Surowiecki. In his best-selling book “Wisdom of Crowds”, Surowiecki shows us that “large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant — better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future.”

How is our prediction market platform unique?

Our platform is based off of Dr. Robin Hanson’s patented logarithmic market scoring rule (LMSR). Dr. Hanson is considered the “father of prediction markets.”

How does the platform work?

Think of it like a stock exchange — participants make predictions based on what they believe will happen in the future. By looking to make their holdings as valuable as possible, participants make decisions on what they believe will happen in the marketplace.

How accurate is this method compared to others?

Extensive research published in Quirk’s Magazine in 2013 showed that results from prediction markets, compared to traditional quantitative methods, are almost identical.

Are prediction markets expensive and long?

Prediction Market research can be done in as few as two days and generally cost less than other quantitative methods.

To see screen shots and learn more about Huunu™, our prediction market platform, view the most recent Huunu™ brochure.

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